The August update tracks key developments in primary energy factors, EPBD implementation, Spain’s Energy Savings Certificate scheme and electrification, while the English edition makes AFEC’s full analysis of the Spanish HVAC market available to an international audience for the first time

 

Madrid, 19 August 2026

AFEC, the Spanish Association of HVAC Equipment Manufacturers, has released the August update of its annual market report, together with the first full English-language edition, Spain HVAC Market Report 2025 — Momentum and Resilience.

The report combines AFEC’s proprietary market statistics with a technical and economic assessment of the Spanish HVAC market and the forces shaping its development. It covers air conditioning, heat pumps, domestic hot water (DHW) equipment, ventilation, air distribution and diffusion, air handling units (AHUs), building automation and control systems (BACS), as well as the wider energy, regulatory, economic, climate and construction context.

The 2025 statistics, analysis and outlook remain those available when the original report was closed in February 2026. The August edition adds a dedicated update covering subsequent developments relevant to the HVAC market, while preserving the original text and its February perspective. The update distinguishes between adopted measures, proposals still under consideration and observed market developments.

Six months that reinforce the report’s central assessment

Four developments are particularly relevant to the Spanish market: the revision of primary energy factors (PEFs), implementation of the recast Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), stronger support for thermal electrification through Spain’s Energy Savings Certificate scheme (CAEs), and renewed EU policy momentum behind electrification.

In May, Spain’s Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO) opened a public consultation on a proposed new Recognised Document for building energy performance certification. The proposal updates primary energy conversion factors and CO₂-equivalent emission factors using an explicitly forward-looking approach based on the projected evolution of Spain’s energy mix under the 2023–2030 National Energy and Climate Plan. As of August 2026, the proposal remains under consideration.

EPBD implementation has also entered a new phase. Spain has submitted its draft National Building Renovation Plan and the European Commission published its first assessment in July. Adaptation of the Spanish Technical Building Code (CTE) and the Regulation on Thermal Installations in Buildings (RITE) remains under development, with direct implications for renovation, ventilation, indoor air quality, building automation and control, and real-world building performance.

Spain’s CAE scheme has meanwhile gained further relevance as an instrument for thermal electrification. Royal Decree-law 7/2026 introduced a correction factor that increases the value of certified energy savings where heat pumps replace fossil-fuel equipment, strengthening the link between investment, energy efficiency and verified savings.

At EU level, the European Commission published its Electrification Action Plan on 17 July 2026, reinforcing electrification as part of Europe’s decarbonisation, competitiveness and energy-security strategy. For HVAC, this places even greater emphasis on coherent economic and regulatory signals, while electricity-to-fossil-fuel price differentials, taxation and grid capacity continue to influence the pace of deployment.

“The developments since February reinforce the central reading of the report. Market momentum is real, but the pace at which it translates into actual performance depends on the alignment of regulation, economic signals, financing, technology and delivery capacity. The August update allows us to assess that direction against developments that are already affecting the market,” says Marta San Román, Director General of AFEC.

The August update also covers the revised 2028 timetable for ETS2, Spain’s draft Social Climate Plan, implementation of the new F-gas framework, the entry into application of new EU ecodesign requirements for fans, progress on the Digital Product Passport framework, energy-performance reporting for data centres and new results-based financing for decarbonised industrial heat.

It also incorporates the European heat pump market data published after the original report was closed. Sales across 21 European countries increased by 13% in 2025 to 2.9 million units, confirming the recovery that was beginning to emerge when AFEC completed its February assessment.

Spain’s HVAC market: growth accompanied by structural change

AFEC’s statistics recorded 11.4% aggregate growth in the value of sell-in sales across the product categories covered by its market studies in 2025.

Within that total, the air-conditioning, heat pump and DHW equipment segment grew by 6.5% in value. The Spanish heat pump market reached 227,524 units, up 14.9% year on year, with growth across all three technology groups covered by AFEC.

The report goes beyond headline market figures to examine how the structure and value proposition of HVAC are evolving. Greater emphasis on system integration, controls, commissioning, interoperability and operational data is increasing the importance of measured, real-world performance alongside product efficiency.

Thermal resilience is also gaining weight. More frequent extreme heat, growing cooling demand and the operational requirements of hospitals, data centres, industry and other critical applications are increasing the relevance of reliable heating and cooling, ventilation, indoor air quality and control.

At the same time, the report identifies persistent gaps between technological capability and market delivery. OPEX signals, energy taxation, regulatory implementation, skills availability, commissioning and the quality of installation remain decisive in determining how efficiently installed systems perform in practice.

AFEC’s full market analysis available in English for the first time

The publication of Spain HVAC Market Report 2025 — Momentum and Resilience makes AFEC’s complete annual analysis of the Spanish HVAC market available in English for the first time.

The English edition is intended for manufacturers, international corporate groups, European industry associations, institutions, policy makers, analysts and HVAC professionals seeking a detailed understanding of both the Spanish market and the economic, technical and regulatory factors influencing its development.

Spain provides a particularly relevant perspective within the wider European HVAC debate. Rising cooling demand, heat pump deployment, thermal electrification, renewable electricity integration, building renovation, system flexibility, indoor environmental quality and climate adaptation increasingly intersect within the country’s heating and cooling market.

The English edition gives international stakeholders access to the same statistical base, market analysis and sector perspective available in the Spanish report.

Market intelligence built on sector data

AFEC has produced HVAC market statistics since 1977. Its studies are based on data submitted directly by participating companies and reflect sell-in sales to the professional channel, rather than final sell-out to end users.

Data are aggregated and reviewed through the corresponding Market Committees under a governance framework designed to preserve confidentiality and market representativeness. The validated results provide a consistent evidence base for assessing market size, product and technology trends, changes in market mix and the wider forces affecting investment and demand.

By combining these statistics with technical and economic analysis, the report provides manufacturers, public authorities and other market stakeholders with a common framework for interpreting developments in the Spanish HVAC sector.

Spain HVAC Market Report 2025 — Momentum and Resilience
Original report: February 2026. Updated edition: August 2026.
https://www.afec.es/visorpdf/mercado/2025en/AFEC-Spain-HVAC-market-and-industry-outlook-2025-EN.pdf

Spanish edition — Informe del mercado de las instalaciones térmicas y de climatización en España 2025 — Tracción y resiliencia
Informe original: febrero de 2026. Edición actualizada: agosto de 2026.
https://www.afec.es/visorpdf/mercado/2025/AFEC-Informe-de-mercado-2025-y-coyuntura-sectorial-HVAC.pdf